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The Ageing Truck Fleet: When Does an Old Truck Cost More Than a New One?

Sep 28, 2026

Summary

Australia’s heavy trucks are much older than those in the large US fleets surveyed by ATRI, and repair costs rise steeply with age. But with interest rates climbing and new trucks costing more, there is no fixed age at which replacement pays; the answer depends on each operator’s own repair, downtime and fuel records.

  • An old fleet. The average heavy rigid truck was 16.19 years old and the average articulated truck 12.53 years at January 2025. Nearly one in three heavy rigid trucks, 122,187 vehicles, was built in 2004 or earlier.
  • Repair costs climb with age. A US industry estimate puts repair and maintenance at about 2 cents per mile in a truck’s first year, rising to about 16.5 cents by year six. US average repair costs rose 45% between 2019 and 2025.
  • Replacement is getting dearer too. US truck payments rose 61% over the same period. In Australia, the cash rate was 4.35% with a further rise expected, and Euro VI rules add an estimated $4,000 to $6,000 to a new truck.
  • The decision is individual. Downtime, major overhauls, fuel savings and resale value can matter as much as routine repair bills.

 

Operators who log every repair, breakdown and litre of fuel against each truck can find their own crossover point and make the call before a major repair forces it.

How old is Australia’s truck fleet?

Australia’s heavy trucks are old, and the heavy rigid fleet is getting no younger. At 31 January 2025 the average heavy rigid truck was 16.19 years old and the average articulated truck 12.53 years, against 11.54 years for all registered motor vehicles.

Average age (years)

2023

2024

2025

Heavy rigid trucks (over 4.5 t GVM)

16.26

16.21

16.19

Articulated trucks

12.51

12.47

12.53

Light rigid trucks (3.5 to 4.5 t GVM)

10.43

9.81

9.35

All motor vehicles

11.24

11.40

11.54

Source: BITRE, Road vehicles Australia, January 2025, Table 3.

The age spread shows how many trucks are well past their first decade.

Year of manufacture

Heavy rigid trucks

Share

Articulated trucks

Share

2020–2025

82,606

20.5%

36,949

28.7%

2015–2019

71,399

17.7%

26,418

20.5%

2010–2014

59,421

14.7%

21,732

16.9%

2005–2009

68,204

16.9%

18,175

14.1%

2004 or earlier

122,187

30.3%

25,291

19.7%

Total

403,870

 

128,568

 

Source: BITRE, Road vehicles Australia, January 2025, Table 6. Shares are calculated from these figures and exclude a small number of trucks with no year of manufacture stated (53 heavy rigid, 3 articulated).

Nearly one in three heavy rigid trucks, 122,187 vehicles, was built in 2004 or earlier and is therefore more than 20 years old. Almost half the heavy rigid fleet (47.1%) and a third of the articulated fleet (33.8%) was built before 2010.

Age varies by state. Tasmania has the oldest heavy rigid trucks, averaging 19.18 years, followed by South Australia (18.33) and Western Australia (18.32). Western Australia also has the oldest articulated trucks, averaging 13.51 years.

Light rigid trucks are the exception. Their average age fell from 10.43 to 9.35 years in two years as registrations grew 12.8% in the year to January 2025 alone, which shows how quickly new purchases lower a fleet’s average age.

What older trucks cost to keep running

Maintenance cost climbs as a truck ages, and it climbs steeply. No official Australian series tracks repair costs by truck age, so this section uses the most detailed published benchmark, the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) survey of US trucking costs. The dollar figures are US dollars per mile, but the pattern is relevant to any fleet.

The maintenance curve

Fleet Advantage, a US truck leasing and lifecycle firm, estimates that for a heavy truck running 100,000 miles a year, repair and maintenance costs about 2 US cents per mile in the first year and rises to about 16.5 cents per mile by the sixth year. That is roughly an eight-fold increase over six years, before allowing for parts price inflation (Fleet Maintenance, 7 August 2026). This is an industry estimate rather than official data, but it shows how front-loaded the savings from a new truck are.

What ATRI’s 2025 data shows

  • Repair costs are rising fast. Industry-average repair and maintenance reached US$0.215 per mile in 2025, up 8.6% in a year and 45% since 2019. ATRI attributes the rise partly to parts prices, tariffs, more breakdowns and ageing trucks.
  • Breakdowns are more frequent. The distance between breakdowns or unscheduled repairs fell from 38,249 miles in 2024 to 36,891 miles in 2025.
  • Small fleets pay the most. Truckload fleets with fewer than five trucks averaged US$0.275 per mile in repair and maintenance, against US$0.169 for fleets of more than 1,000 trucks (Summar Financial, citing ATRI). ATRI links this to smaller fleets spending less on new equipment, and notes that older trucks typically need more maintenance (Heavy Duty Trucking).
  • US fleets replace early. ATRI’s surveyed fleets had an average truck age of 3.6 years and replace trucks roughly every seven years, after about 634,000 miles.

The Australian gap

The contrast with Australia is stark. ATRI’s surveyed US fleets run trucks averaging 3.6 years old; Australia’s heavy rigid fleet averages 16.19 years and its articulated fleet 12.53 years. The ATRI fleets are mostly large carriers, so the comparison is not like-for-like, but it means many Australian trucks are operating well beyond the roughly seven-year replacement cycle of large US fleets.

What a newer truck costs

Replacing an old truck swaps unpredictable repair bills for a predictable finance repayment. That repayment is now more expensive than it was a few years ago, and ATRI reports that US fleets have been delaying replacements and running their trucks harder.

Interest rates are rising. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate target was 4.35% at the time of writing, following three increases earlier in 2026 (RBA). The RBA’s next decision is due on 29 September 2026, and all four major banks were forecasting a further increase to 4.6%, which would be the highest since 2011 (SBS News, 28 September 2026). Equipment finance rates generally move with the cash rate, so every increase lifts the cost of replacing a truck.

Truck payments are rising faster than maintenance in the US. ATRI found truck lease and purchase payments rose 3.6% in 2025 and 61% since 2019, compared with a 45% rise in repair and maintenance costs over the same period. In 2025, truck payments averaged US$0.28 per mile and trailer payments US$0.12 (FleetOwner; Fleet Maintenance).

New emissions rules add to the price. From 1 November 2025, all new heavy vehicles supplied in Australia must meet ADR 80/04, based on Euro VI. The Department of Infrastructure estimates the technology adds 3 to 5%, or $4,000 to $6,000, to the cost of supplying a new truck (Department of Infrastructure, ADR 80/04 Q&A).

Depreciation can offset part of the cost. For trucks over 3.5 tonnes GVM acquired from 1 January 2005, the ATO applies a statutory cap of 7.5 years on the effective life used for depreciation, where the Commissioner’s determined effective life is longer (ATO, statutory caps on effective life). Tax treatment depends on each business’s circumstances, so confirm it with an accountant.

This article does not quote new or used truck prices, because prices vary widely by make, specification and market and no official series tracks them. Operators should use actual quotes from dealers and financiers.

Finding the crossover point

There is no single age at which every truck should be replaced. The crossover comes when the yearly cost of keeping the old truck exceeds the yearly cost of owning a newer one. Each operator’s figures are different, so the answer has to come from their own records.

The comparison

\text{Keep cost} = \text{Repairs} + \text{Downtime cost} + \text{Fuel} + \text{Major work due}

\text{Replace cost} = \text{Finance repayments} + \text{Fuel} + \text{Repairs} – \text{Tax benefit of depreciation}

Replacement starts to make sense when the keep cost is consistently higher than the replace cost, after allowing for the sale or trade-in value of the old truck. The main inputs are set out below.

Cost item

Keeping the old truck

Replacing with a newer truck

Repairs and servicing

Last 12 months’ actual repair bills, trending upward

Lower, with warranty cover in early years

Downtime

Days off the road × revenue lost per day

Fewer unscheduled breakdowns

Major work due

Engine, gearbox, differential or brake overhauls coming up

Usually none in the first years

Fuel

Actual litres per 100 km

Manufacturer or fleet data for the new model

Finance

Usually nil if paid off

Monthly repayment × 12

Insurance and registration

Current premium and rego

Quote for the newer truck

Sale or trade-in value

Falls each year the truck is kept

Offsets part of the purchase price

Tax

Little remaining depreciation

Depreciation deductions; confirm with an accountant

A US illustration

Using the published US figures above shows how the comparison works, though it is not a forecast for any Australian truck. At 100,000 miles a year, Fleet Advantage’s estimate of 16.5 US cents per mile for repairs in year six equals about US$16,500 a year. ATRI’s 2025 average truck payment of US$0.28 per mile equals about US$28,000 a year at the same distance. On repairs alone the old truck is still cheaper, so the decision turns on the costs these averages leave out: downtime, fuel efficiency, major overhauls and resale value.

A single major repair can tip the balance. When a quote for an engine or transmission rebuild arrives, compare it with the replacement cost before approving it, not after.

Keep the records that make the decision possible

  1. Log every repair, part and service against each truck, with the date and odometer reading.
  2. Record every day off the road and the revenue lost.
  3. Track fuel use per 100 km for each truck, not just the fleet.
  4. Get a trade-in or sale value each year, so you can see how quickly the truck is losing value.
  5. Get finance quotes before a major repair decision, not after a breakdown.

The Freight Metrics Truck Operating Cost Calculator lets operators enter both scenarios, the existing truck and a replacement, and compare cost per kilometre, per day and per year side by side.

Other factors in the decision

Fuel. Truck and bus manufacturers have advised the Department of Infrastructure that their latest Euro VI engines are up to 10% more fuel efficient than previous Euro V models (Department of Infrastructure, ADR 80/04 Q&A). This is a manufacturer claim, and the gap against a truck two or three generations older may be different. As an illustration only: at the ABS average of 53.1 litres per 100 km for articulated trucks, a 10% saving is about 5.3 litres per 100 km, or roughly $15 per 100 km at the ACCC’s five-city average diesel price of 286.8 cents a litre on 23 September 2026 (ABS Survey of Motor Vehicle Use, 2020; ACCC). That is a pump price including GST and excise, so an operator’s net saving after credits will be lower.

Emissions rules don’t force retirement. ADR 80/04 applies to new trucks only. Currently registered vehicles are not affected and do not need to be retrofitted to stay on the road. So the rules raise the price of a new truck without requiring older trucks to be replaced.

Downtime and breakdowns. ATRI’s US data shows the distance between breakdowns or unscheduled repairs fell 3.6% in 2025, to 36,891 miles. Every breakdown costs revenue, and possibly a customer, as well as the repair bill.

Resale value. An older truck’s sale or trade-in value keeps falling. Delaying replacement means the old truck contributes less towards the next one.

Customer and contract requirements. Customers and tenders may set minimum vehicle standards or age limits. Operators should check the terms of their current and target contracts.

Safety and driver retention. Newer trucks are built to more recent Australian Design Rules. Drivers may also prefer newer equipment, which can matter when recruiting.

About the data

  • Fleet age is from BITRE’s Road vehicles Australia, January 2025, the latest edition published. It covers trucks registered for unrestricted road use at 31 January 2025. Average age excludes trucks with no year of manufacture recorded.
  • Maintenance and truck payment costs are US figures from ATRI’s 2026 Analysis of the Operational Costs of Trucking, as reported by FleetOwner, Fleet Maintenance, Heavy Duty Trucking and Summar Financial. They are in US dollars per mile and mostly reflect large fleets with young trucks. No comparable official Australian series was found.
  • The maintenance curve (2 to 16.5 US cents per mile over six years) is an industry estimate from Fleet Advantage, not official data.
  • Interest rates are as at 28 September 2026, the day before the RBA’s scheduled decision.
  • Illustrations in this article are arithmetic applied to the sourced figures. They show how the comparison works; they are not forecasts or advice for any particular truck.
  • Tax information is general. Operators should confirm depreciation and other tax treatment with their accountant.

References

  1. Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics (2025), Road vehicles Australia, January 2025, BITRE, Canberra, Tables 3 and 6.
  2. American Transportation Research Institute (2026), Analysis of the Operational Costs of Trucking: 2026 Update.
  3. Fleet Maintenance (7 August 2026), M&R cost per mile rose nearly 9% in 2025: ATRI study.
  4. FleetOwner (22 July 2026), Trucking operational costs hit record $2.336 per mile, ATRI reports.
  5. Heavy Duty Trucking (15 July 2026), ATRI: Average Truck Operating Cost Reaches Record $2.336 Per Mile.
  6. Summar Financial (31 July 2026), 2026 Trucking Costs: What Small Carriers Need to Know.
  7. Reserve Bank of Australia, Cash rate target, accessed 28 September 2026.
  8. SBS News (28 September 2026), How tomorrow’s RBA decision could affect borrowers.
  9. Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications, Sport and the Arts, Questions and answers on the new ADR 80/04.
  10. Australian Taxation Office, Capital allowances: statutory caps on the effective life of buses, light commercial vehicles, minibuses, trucks and truck trailers.
  11. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Survey of Motor Vehicle Use, Australia, 12 months ended 30 June 2020.
  12. Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, Weekly fuel price monitoring report, 24 September 2026.
  13. Freight Metrics, Truck Operating Cost Calculator Trial.