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Fifty Years of Inflation and the Cost of Moving Freight: Australia and the United States
Summary
Over the past 50 years inflation has multiplied the cost of running a truck, while bigger and more productive vehicles kept the real price of freight per tonne falling. That trade-off has largely played out, leaving today’s operators exposed to fuel shocks, rising insurance and thin margins, with less productivity headroom to absorb them.
Key findings, each sourced below:
Inflation: US consumer prices are about 6 times their 1975 level; Australian prices are about 3.65 times their 1985 level.
Diesel: US diesel rose about 3.3 times from 1995 to 2025, faster than general prices. Australian diesel in the five largest cities jumped from 176.6 to 322.4 cents a litre in six weeks in early 2026.
Operating costs: the average US truck cost a record US$2.336 per mile to run in 2025. Insurance premiums rose a further 6.4% in early 2026.
Cost per tonne: Australian interstate road freight rates rose from 2.00 to 7.53 cents per net tonne-kilometre between 1974–75 and 2007–08, but fell about 43% in real terms.
Truck size: Australian articulated truck average loads more than doubled from 1971 to 2007 as B-doubles and higher mass limits arrived. The US federal gross weight limit has stayed at 80,000 pounds since 1975.
Sensitivity: with US truckload margins under 1% in 2025, an unrecovered diesel rise to 2026 peak prices would raise costs about 11% per mile.
The practical lesson is to know your cost per kilometre and per tonne, separate fuel from the base rate, and tie rate reviews to published indexes.
Fifty years of inflation
US consumer prices are about six times higher than in 1975, and Australian prices have risen faster than US prices over the last 40 years. For a transport operator, that means a rate set a decade ago and never reviewed is now a loss-making rate.
Measure
Start
End
Prices multiplied by
US CPI-U, annual average
53.8 (1975)
321.9 (2025)
5.98
US CPI-U, annual average
107.6 (1985)
321.9 (2025)
2.99
Australian CPI, eight capitals
38.8 (June qtr 1985)
141.7 (June qtr 2025)
3.65
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U as published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (1982–84 = 100); ABS All Groups CPI, weighted average of eight capital cities, as published by the Australian Taxation Office (2011–12 = 100). Multiples are calculated from these index values.
The Australian comparison starts in 1985 because that is the earliest year the ATO publishes on the current ABS index base. Earlier ABS figures use different reference bases, and this article does not splice them.
The pace of inflation has been uneven. US annual inflation reached 13.5% in 1980, fell to 0.1% in 2015, then rose to 8.0% in 2022. Periods like 2021–2023 are when fixed-price contracts do the most damage, because costs move faster than rates can be renegotiated.
Diesel: faster than inflation, and far more volatile
US diesel prices rose about 3.3 times between 1995 and 2025, while general prices rose about 2.1 times. Diesel does not just track inflation; it outpaces it, and it swings far more sharply from year to year.
US on-highway diesel, annual average
US$ per gallon
1995
1.109
2005
2.402
2008
3.803
2015
2.707
2022
4.989
2025
3.660
Source: US Energy Information Administration, No 2 Diesel Retail Prices. EIA’s national retail diesel series begins in 1994, so a 50-year diesel comparison is not available from this source. Over the same 1995–2025 period, US CPI-U rose from 152.4 to 321.9.
The year-to-year swings matter more to operators than the long-run trend. US diesel averaged $2.304 a gallon in 2016 and $4.989 in 2022, more than double in six years. In 2026 the monthly average rose from $3.523 in January to $5.600 in May.
Australia in 2026: a live example of fuel shock
Australian diesel prices are set mainly by the international benchmark, Singapore Gasoil 10 ppm, and the AUD–USD exchange rate. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) reports that after conflict escalated in the Middle East on 28 February 2026, diesel rose faster than petrol because the region is a key supplier of both diesel and diesel-rich crude.
Average retail diesel, five largest cities
Cents per litre
2023–24 financial year average
200.0
2024–25 financial year average
181.9
20 February 2026
176.6
31 March 2026
322.4
23 September 2026
286.8
Sources: ACCC, 2024–25 annual results; ACCC Weekly fuel price monitoring report, 24 September 2026.
Diesel in the five largest cities was 110.2 cents a litre higher on 23 September than on 20 February 2026. The Australian Government cut fuel excise by 32 cents a litre from 1 April to 30 June 2026, then fully restored it to 53.7 cents a litre on 3 August. The ABS reported that road freight transport output prices rose 15.5% in the June quarter 2026, driven by fuel (ABS, Price indexes and inflation).
The lesson for costing is simple: a fuel price assumed at the start of a contract can be wrong by more than 60% within weeks.
Insurance, labour and cost per tonne
The cost of running a truck keeps rising faster than inflation, yet the real price customers pay per tonne-kilometre fell for decades. That gap was closed by productivity, not by rates, and it leaves little room for error.
What a truck costs to run today (United States)
The American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) found the average cost to operate a heavy truck in 2025 was US$2.336 per mile, up 3.4% and the highest in the report’s history. Excluding fuel, costs rose 4.2% to US$1.854 per mile, against US CPI growth of 2.7%.
Cost item, 2025
US$ per mile
Change on 2024
Driver wages
0.818
+2.5%
Fuel
0.48
about flat
Truck and trailer payments
0.40
+3.6%
Repair and maintenance
0.22
+8.6%
Driver benefits
0.210
+6.6%
Insurance premiums
0.11
+3.9%
Tyres
0.05
+6.4%
Tolls
0.043
+13.2%
Total marginal cost
2.336
+3.4%
Sources: ATRI, 2026 Analysis of the Operational Costs of Trucking, release; line items as reported by FleetOwner. Rows are sorted by cost.
Insurance is now the fastest-rising line. Premiums rose a further 6.4% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with 2025. ATRI notes that the commercial auto insurance segment has been unprofitable in all but one of the last 10 years, driven partly by crash costs and litigation payouts. Despite record costs, truckload operating margins were below 1.0% in 2025.
This article does not include an equivalent Australian cost-per-kilometre breakdown or insurance premium series, because no comparable official series was found. Operators should use their own figures.
Cost per tonne: 50 years of falling real freight rates (Australia)
BITRE’s long-run series shows what customers paid for interstate road freight, in cents per net tonne-kilometre.
Year
Nominal road rate (cents per net tonne-km)
Real road rate index (2000–01 = 100)
1974–75
2.00
173.31
1980–81
2.69
127.15
1990–91
4.69
104.06
2000–01
5.66
100.00
2007–08
7.53
99.61
Source: BITRE, Freight rates in Australia 1964–65 to 2007–08, Information Sheet 28, Table 1 (interstate non-bulk, full container load, door-to-door).
Nominal road rates rose 3.8 times between 1974–75 and 2007–08, but in real terms they fell by about 43%. BITRE attributes the long decline to productivity gains such as larger vehicles (B-doubles) and more efficient engines. It describes a rapid real decline from 1975 to 1985, then a broadly sideways trend moving with technology, fuel prices and the economy (BITRE, Freight Rates in Australia). When fuel surged after 2000–01, real road rates rose 9% in seven years, showing how quickly fuel flows through to the price per tonne.
Bigger trucks: Australia pulled ahead
Australia’s average articulated truck load more than doubled between 1971 and 2007, while the US federal gross weight limit has barely moved in 50 years. BITRE identifies larger vehicles as among the most significant factors in lowering road freight costs.
Australia
BITRE research shows Australia’s road freight task grew six-fold over 35 years while commercial vehicle kilometres grew only three-fold, a near two-fold rise in heavy vehicle productivity (Mitchell, BITRE, ATRF 2010).
Articulated trucks, Australia
1971
2007
Average load (tonnes per vehicle-km)
9.7
20.1 to 20.7
Average annual distance (km)
about 50,000
over 90,000
Share of road freight task
about 55%
about 78%
Source: Mitchell (2010), BITRE, using ABS Survey of Motor Vehicle Use data. The paper reports 20.1 t and 20.7 t in different sections.
The key regulatory steps, from the same source:
1979–80: six-axle articulated truck mass limit raised to 38.4 tonnes GVM in most jurisdictions.
Late 1980s: B-doubles introduced; B-double share of road freight rose from near zero in 1988 to about 32% in 2007.
1988: heavy vehicle speed limit raised to 100 km/h (road trains 90 km/h).
1993–95: uniform national mass limits; B-double length increased from 23 to 25 metres, then to 26 metres in 2005.
1998 onward: Higher Mass Limits (1998), Concessional Mass Limits (2006) and Performance Based Standards (2007).
Since 1971, the general mass limit for six-axle articulated trucks has risen 24%. Travel time between Sydney and Melbourne fell from about 15 hours in 1971 to about 11 hours by 2010.
The shift to heavier combinations continues. The ABS recorded that between 2007 and 2012, articulated trucks rated over 20 to 40 tonnes gross combination mass fell 26.4%, while those rated 60 to 100 tonnes rose 31% and those over 100 tonnes rose 49% (ABS Motor Vehicle Census 2012). By January 2025, 53.8% of registered articulated trucks were rated 60 to 100 tonnes and 12.4% over 100 tonnes (BITRE Road Vehicles Australia, January 2025).
United States
The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956 set an Interstate gross vehicle weight limit of 73,280 pounds. The Federal-Aid Highway Amendments of 1974, effective in 1975, raised it to 80,000 pounds, subject to the federal bridge formula. The Surface Transportation Assistance Act of 1982 made 80,000 pounds the minimum states must allow on Interstates and required states to allow 48-foot semitrailers and 28-foot twin trailers on the National Network (US DOT, FHWA testimony).
The 80,000-pound (about 36.3 tonne) federal limit has not changed since 1975. In 1991 the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act froze longer combination vehicles at their existing weights and routes. The US federal limit has therefore not delivered the kind of step-changes in allowable mass that Australia’s reforms did.
Fuel efficiency: the gain is per tonne, not per kilometre
Official data shows only modest measured gains in the fuel a heavy truck uses per kilometre; the bigger gain has come from carrying more freight on each kilometre. For quoting, that means fuel cost per tonne has fallen, while fuel cost per kilometre still moves directly with the pump price.
Measure
Earlier
Later
Source
Australian articulated trucks, average fuel use
54.6 L/100 km (12 months to Oct 2007)
53.1 L/100 km (12 months to June 2020)
ABS Survey of Motor Vehicle Use
US combination trucks, average fuel economy
5.1 mpg (1975)
5.8 mpg (1995)
FHWA via BTS, Table 4-14
Sources: ABS SMVU 2007; ABS SMVU 2020; BTS National Transportation Statistics, 2009 edition, Table 4-14.
Both series carry warnings. The ABS says its survey was not designed to measure change over time, and it changed its fuel question in 2018. The US series was rebased in 1998 and again in 2007, so BTS states later figures are not comparable with earlier years (BTS, Table 4-14). This article therefore does not quote a single 50-year fuel-economy improvement figure.
What the data does show clearly is the load effect. Australian articulated trucks roughly doubled their average load between 1971 and 2007, and fuel use per kilometre was broadly stable between 2007 and 2020. More tonnes on each kilometre means less fuel per tonne-kilometre, although no official series measures fuel per tonne over the full 50 years. BITRE credits larger vehicles such as B-doubles and more efficient engine technology with the historic reductions in freight costs.
What this means for quotations
Price per kilometre follows the fuel price. At about 53 litres per 100 km, every 10-cent-per-litre rise adds about $5.30 per 100 km to an articulated truck’s fuel cost.
Price per tonne depends on payload. The same trip spread over a full B-double load costs far less per tonne than over a part load, so utilisation assumptions drive the quote.
Efficiency gains are largely spent. The big step-changes from B-doubles and mass limit increases have already happened. BITRE’s 2010 modelling projected much slower future growth in average loads without further reform.
Cost sensitivity and price negotiation
When margins are thin, a single cost input can erase the profit on a contract. In 2025 US truckload carriers averaged operating margins below 1%, so a 1% cost increase that is not recovered turns the average truckload fleet into a loss-maker.
Two worked examples
The examples below apply published prices to published cost structures. They are illustrations, not forecasts.
United States, fuel shock. ATRI’s 2025 fuel cost was US$0.48 per mile, when EIA diesel averaged US$3.660 a gallon. If diesel is instead US$5.600, the May 2026 monthly average, and fuel use per mile is unchanged:
\text{Fuel cost per mile} = 0.48 \times \frac{5.600}{3.660} \approx 0.73
That adds about US$0.25 per mile, lifting the US$2.336 total by about 11%. Against a margin under 1%, an unrecovered fuel shock of this size means losses on every mile.
Australia, fuel shock. At the ABS average of 53.1 litres per 100 km for articulated trucks, the ACCC’s five-city diesel price of 176.6 cents a litre on 20 February 2026 implies about $93.77 of fuel per 100 km. At 322.4 cents on 31 March 2026, the same distance cost about $171.19, an increase of about $77 per 100 km in six weeks. These are pump prices including GST and excise; an operator’s net cost after GST credits and fuel tax credits will be lower, so use your own net fuel price in any quote.
How to protect a rate
Know your cost per kilometre and per tonne. Build the rate from fixed and variable costs, then add margin. Without the cost base, there is nothing to negotiate from.
Separate fuel from the base rate. A fuel levy or surcharge lets the rate move with the fuel price without renegotiating the whole contract. Coastal shipping companies introduced fuel surcharges of up to 10% in 2008 when fuel rose (BITRE Information Sheet 28).
Tie adjustments to a published index. Agree in advance which series triggers a change, such as ACCC or AIP diesel prices, EIA weekly diesel prices, or the ABS Consumer Price Index or road freight producer price index.
Set review dates. Annual reviews worked when inflation ran near 2%. With 2022 US inflation at 8.0% and 2026 fuel moving tens of cents per litre in a week, quarterly or trigger-based reviews are safer.
Watch the fastest-rising costs. Insurance premiums rose 6.4% in the first quarter of 2026 in the US data, and tolls rose 13.2% in 2025. Costs that were minor a decade ago can now move a quote.
Show the customer the build-up. A transparent cost breakdown turns a price argument into a discussion about cost drivers the customer can verify.
For 50 years, road freight absorbed inflation by getting bigger and more productive. Australian operators in particular moved to heavier combinations that carried more tonnes on every kilometre, which is why real freight rates fell even as nominal costs climbed.
That cushion is thinner now. Insurance, maintenance and tolls rose faster than general prices in 2025, fuel spiked in 2026, while the major step-changes in vehicle size have already been captured. In that environment, a quote built on last year’s costs, or on an assumed fuel price, is a risk the operator carries alone.
Operators who know their true cost per kilometre and per tonne, separate fuel from the base rate, and review rates against published indexes will be in the strongest position to negotiate, and to stay in business.
